Cutler, Broncos, Try to Sew Up Playoff Bid Vs. Niners

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler is peering over the precipice of his first NFL playoff experience. By the time Denver takes the field on Sunday afternoon against the visiting San Francisco 49ers, the rookie may have already made his jump.

Thanks to the back-to-back wins that Cutler engineered over the Cardinals (37-20) and Bengals (24-23), victories that also qualify as his first and second as an NFL starter, the Broncos are poised to reach the postseason for the fourth straight year and the eighth time in 12 seasons under head coach Mike Shanahan. Should the 8-7 Chiefs fall to the Jaguars in an early afternoon game on Sunday, the Broncos will have clinched an AFC Wild Card berth, and irrespective of the result of the Kansas City/Jacksonville game, Denver can lock up the No. 5 seed in the conference with a victory over the Niners.

The Broncos are certain to play a first-round road game if they reach the postseason, with a trip to New England, Indianapolis, or Baltimore likely in the franchise's near future.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is resigned to play the role of spoiler. The 49ers forfeited their chance at a first postseason trip since 2002 last Sunday, when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals (26-20). The defeat clinched the Niners' fourth consecutive losing season, which matches the longest such streak in franchise history. San Francisco suffered through four straight sub-.500 campaigns from 1977 to 1980, just prior to an extraordinarily successful run that saw the organization make 12 playoff appearances and win five Super Bowls in a 14-year period that spanned 1981 to 1994

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos lead the all-time regular season series with the 49ers, 6-4, and have won each of the last two head-to-head meetings. Denver was a 24-14 winner when the teams last did battle, at Monster Park in 2002, and also took the last recent matchup in the Mile High City, a 38-9 triumph in 2000. San Francisco's last win in the series took place at home in 1997. The Niners are 0-3 in Denver since scoring their only win there in 1973.

The most memorable meeting between the teams was Super Bowl XXIV in New Orleans, won by the 49ers, 55-10, in a game that remains the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Shanahan is 3-1 all-time against San Francisco, for which he served as offensive coordinator from 1992 through 1994, including 2-1 since coming to the Broncos in 1995. The 49ers' Mike Nolan will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.

49ERS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

High on the 49ers' list of directives for Sunday's game will be handing the ball to running back Frank Gore (1542 rushing yards, 59 receptions, 9 TD), who enters Week 17 needing just 29 ground yards to break the franchise single- season record of 1,570, recorded by Garrison Hearst in 1998. Gore was held to just 51 yards on 11 rushes during a frustrating afternoon against Arizona last week, though he did manage his eighth and ninth touchdowns of the year and also contributed six catches for 35 yards out of the backfield. The Miami- Florida product, who is headed to his first career Pro Bowl, has eight 100- yard games to his credit this season. Maurice Hicks (82 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 1 TD) was the only other San Francisco player with a touch against the Cardinals, and his lone carry netted minus-two yards. The Niners are seventh in the league in rushing offense (132.2 yards per game), and second in yards per carry (5.0).

Gore's push for the franchise rushing mark will be made easier this week if middle linebacker Al Wilson (101 tackles, 1 sack), who is listed as questionable with a sore lower back, is unable to suit up. Wilson, who leads Denver in tackles, was present last Sunday when the Bengals' Rudi Johnson amassed 129 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries in snowy conditions. Wilson logged six stops in the game, and fellow LB Ian Gold (78 tackles) had a quiet day with three tackles. Up front, end/tackle Ebenezer Ekuban (58 tackles, 6.5 sacks) had a huge game, finishing with a season-high eight tackles and notching the fourth sack in his last six outings. Ekuban and fellow interior linemen Michael Myers (52 tackles, 2 sacks) and Gerard Warren (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) are at the front of a defense that ranks 11th in NFL rushing defense (108.3 yards per game).

Among San Francisco's most prominent offseason needs will have to be receiving help, which was in precious little supply in last week's loss to Arizona. Missing for the Niners' most crucial game of the season to date was supposed No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3 TD), who was suspended for four games following a violation of the league's substance abuse policy. Without him, Arnaz Battle (55 receptions, 3 TD) was quarterback Alex Smith's only reliable outside receiving target, with Battle catching seven passes for a respectable 55 yards. Also making his presence felt was rookie tight end Vernon Davis (17 receptions, 3 TD), who caught four balls for a season-high 91 yards in a losing effort. Bryan Gilmore (7 receptions, 1 TD), who started in place of Bryant, came up small without a catch. Smith (2696 passing yards, 15 TD, 15 INT) was 18-of-29 for 190 yards with an interception and four sacks absorbed on the day, lowering his season passer rating to 75.2. San Francisco is 28th in NFL passing offense (167.8 yards per game) heading into Sunday.

Smith will want to steer well clear of a Denver secondary that was instrumental in last week's key victory over Cincinnati. Cornerback Champ Bailey (81 tackles) logged his NFL-leading ninth interception of the year off of Carson Palmer, also contributing a fumble recovery; fellow CB Darrent Williams (83 tackles, 4 INT) had a pick and a forced fumble; strong safety John Lynch (75 tackles) registered seven tackles and a forced fumble of his own; and strong safety Domonique Foxworth (58 tackles, 1 INT) posted a game- high 14 tackles and yet another forced fumble. A hot-and-cold pass rush managed just two sacks of Palmer all day, one of which went to starting end Kenard Lang (33 tackles, 6 sacks). Situational rookie Elvis Dumervil continues to lead the team in sacks with eight. Denver is 23rd in the league versus the pass (215.6 yards per game), and tied for 19th in sacks (31).

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE

Cutler (771 passing yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has shown immediate playmaking ability for Denver, throwing two touchdown passes in each of his first four starts and spreading the ball to a number of different targets along the way. Cutler was 12-of-23 for 179 yards with two TDs and a pick in the win over Cincinnati, with his scoring strikes going to tight end Tony Scheffler (15 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Javon Walker (65 receptions, 8 TD), while No. 3 receiver Brandon Marshall (18 receptions, 2 TD) contributed a team-high four catches for 55 yards to the win. The rookie Scheffler has all three of his NFL touchdown receptions during Cutler's four-game stint as starter, and fellow greenhorn Marshall has posted his two highest receiving totals of the year over that stretch as well. Walker continues to lead Denver in grabs, receiving yards (1059), and TD catches. Veteran Rod Smith (47 receptions, 3 TD) was held to one reception for five yards against the Bengals. The Broncos line has allowed 28 sacks on the year, including 11 of Cutler.

Rattling Cutler could be a problem for a 49ers defense that is just 27th in the league versus aerial attacks (224.1 yards per game), tied for 19th in sacks (31), and had little answer for Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner on a 267- yard passing day for Arizona last Sunday. The 49ers failed to force a single turnover from the Cardinal offense, a trend that the likes of cornerback Walt Harris (56 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) and strong safety Keith Lewis (72 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be trying to reverse in Denver. Harris and Lewis are 1-2 on the team in interceptions, but neither has reached the INT column in their team's past five games. Reserve end Roderick Green (12 tackles, 4.5 sacks) had the Niners' only two sacks against Arizona last Sunday, and moved closer to linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) for the team lead in that category with the effort.

Poised to cross the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time in his career is Broncos running back Tatum Bell (977 rushing yards, 2 TD, 21 receptions), who is just 23 yards shy of four digits for the year. Bell has five 100-yard games to his credit this season, and though he lost a fumble last week, helped move the chains with 50 yards on 12 carries in the Cincinnati win. Namesake and rookie Mike Bell (611 rushing yards, 8 TD, 17 receptions) has been the hotter player over the past two weeks, compiling 130 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts in the pair of victories. The duo, which has allowed Denver to rank sixth in NFL rushing offense (135.8 yards per game) on the year, is expected to continue to split time this week.

The Bells will be attacking a San Francisco run defense that ranks a middle- of-the-pack 19th in NFL rushing defense (121.4 yards per game), and has given up a bloated 18 touchdowns on the ground this season. Just one week after shutting down the Seahawks' Shaun Alexander in a huge Week 15 win, the 49ers allowed Arizona's Edgerrin James to eclipse the 100-yard plateau last week. James' triple-digit day didn't come without a huge amount of resistance from defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks), whose eight tackles in his first-ever start were a career-high. Fellow lineman Marques Douglas (57 tackles, 3 sacks) chipped in with six stops in the loss. Moore (82 tackles) maintained his team lead in tackles with an 11-stop day, and fellow LB Hannibal Navies (16 tackles) contributed six tackles to the proceedings.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The 49ers have posted some unexpected wins during a season that has seen the franchise make marked improvement, but the Broncos are not a team against which San Francisco matches up particularly well. Smith and Gore are going to have trouble making consistent headway against a Denver defense that has playmakers in the secondary and can stop the run, and a less-than-threatening Niners front seven is going to struggle with Denver's zone-rushing scheme. And that's before you get into the elements, which in no way favor the mild- climate 49ers. Look for the Broncos to jump on the Niners early, and to keep them at arm's length thereafter.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Broncos 28, 49ers 10

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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