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07/03/2010 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team Penske dominated Saturday's qualifying for the IZOD IndyCar Series race at Watkins Glen International, with points leader Will Power grabbing the pole for the Camping World Grand Prix at The Glen.
Power rounded the 3.4-mile, 11-turn road course in one minute, 29.3164 seconds to give Penske its eighth consecutive IndyCar pole this season and its sixth straight pole at Watkins Glen.
"It's awesome to have the car on pole again," said Power, who claimed his fifth pole of the season and the seventh of his IndyCar career. "We're certainly racking them up, but we've got to get the race win."
Power kicked off the season by winning the first two street/road course races -- Brazil and St. Petersburg, FL. He currently holds a 12-point lead over Scott Dixon, who did not make the final "Fast Six" session and ended up qualifying seventh.
Helio Castroneves will start alongside Power on the front row after qualifying 0.14 seconds behind his teammate.
"Each one of us wants to win, but as [team owner] Roger [Penske] says in the end, the team wins," Castroneves said. "Whoever is up there, it benefits the team."
Castroneves won the first three poles at Watkins Glen from 2005-07.
Ryan Briscoe, who won the pole here in 2008 and '09, qualified third, while defending series champion Dario Franchitti took the fourth spot.
Rookie Takuma Sato and Justin Wilson, the defending race winner, will share the third row. Dixon and Marco Andretti will make up row four. Mario Moraes and Adam Carroll, a newcomer to the series, will roll off from the fifth row.
One week after competing in the NASCAR Nationwide Series race at New Hampshire, Danica Patrick qualified a disappointing 21st in the 25 car field.
Sunday's IndyCar race at Watkins Glen is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. (et).
<< King, Shvedova capture Wimbledon doubles title
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Vania King and Kazakh Yaroslava
Shvedova won their first Grand Slam final together on Saturday, toppling Elena
Vesnina and Vera Zvonareva, 7-6 (8-6), 6-2 at The Championships, Wimbledon.
The lo
<< Twins' Hardy returns from DL stint
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins on Saturday reinstated
shortstop J.J. Hardy from the 15-day disabled list.
Hardy missed 20 games after landing on the DL, retroactive to June 7, with a
left wrist contusion. He was
<< Marlins call up INF Donnie Murphy from minors
ATLANTA (AP) -The Florida Marlins, looking for offensive help, have called up infielder Donnie Murphy from Triple-A New Orleans.Infielder Brian Barden, who was hitting .179 in 28 at-bats, was designated for assignment.Manager Edwin Rodriguez says he
<< Woods finds his stroke, shoots another 70
Newtown Square, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods remained a non-factor at the
AT&T National despite finally finding his stroke Saturday on the back nine at
pesky Aronimink.
Woods shot his second straight even-par 70 to finish thre
Wells flirts with no-no, pitches Cubs over Reds >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Randy Wells took a no-hitter into the seventh
inning and pitched into the eighth, as the Chicago Cubs took a 3-1 win over
the Cincinnati Reds in the continuation of a four-game series.
Wells (4-6) gave u
Kaymer leads as Canizares falters in France >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Martin Kaymer only managed
an even-par 71 on Saturday, but it was enough for the third-round lead of the
Open de France.
Kaymer finished 54 holes at nine-under 204 and is one ahead
Tigers activate Perry from DL >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have activated pitcher
Ryan Perry from the 15-day disabled list on Saturday.
Perry had gone to the DL because of biceps tendinitis in his right shoulder
in early June.
The 23-year
Ludwick officially put on DL; Cardinals call up Jay >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick was placed
on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 26, on Saturday.
Ludwick hasn't seen the field since June 25 after suffering a right calf
strain three day
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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